While no one is fully certain who will succeed Pope Francis, we can speculate who the next Pope will be based on the age, popularity and religious politics of various notable cardinals.
What You'll Learn Today
How is a New Pope Chosen?
A papal conclave is convened within 15 to 20 days of death or resignation of the sitting pope to elect the successor. The college of Cardinals is tasked with the responsibility to choose the new pope. They have to be less than 80 years of age to be eligible to vote.
Although the protocol surrounding the election of a new pope has changed a bit since the early church era, secrecy remains a running theme. For this reason, the cardinals are locked in the Sistine Chapel and forbidden to disclose any information regarding the election to anyone outside the conclave.
Voting generally takes 2 – 3 days. A maximum of 4 ballots are held on each successive day with two in the morning and two in the afternoon. The votes are tallied and then burned. At least two-thirds votes plus one of the cardinals present are required for a candidate to be crowned pope.
If no result is obtained after 3 days of voting, the process is suspended for a maximum of one day. During this period the senior cardinal deacon holds prayers and addresses the cardinals. If the elections fail after 33 rounds of balloting, the cardinals may opt to consider half of the votes plus one as a win.
Since 1914, if black smoke (fumata nera) is seen emerging from the roof chimney of the Sistine Chapel it signifies a failed election. White smoke (fumata bianca) on the other hand, reveals a successful election.
Who is the Current Pope?
Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Pope Francis is the current pope. He was elected head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State on the second day of the papal conclave in March 2013 at 76 years of age.
He has been of sound health for most part of his papacy. Nonetheless, his declining health begs scrutiny over his tenure. Following his colon surgery and more recent appearances on a wheelchair due to knee issues, there has been growing questions about his continuance.
Though his health has not hindered his performance, Pope Benedict XVI introduced a modern alternative of resignation which Pope Francis is openly considering.
Who Will Be the Next Pope After Francis?
A cardinal who is considered to be a likely candidate is informally described as a papabile which literally translates to “pope-able”.
Papacy is restricted to a short list of formal requirements. The candidate has to be male and baptized in the Catholic Church. Fluency in the Italian language comes without question.
Traditionally, the cardinals choose the successor from among themselves. Certain cardinals are more likely to be elected than others. This is subject to their religious, moral, political and general outlook.
Age is also a big factor. Some candidates are seen as being too young, while those close to 80 years old are seen as too advanced in years.
Campaigning for the position of pope is largely frowned upon. However, speculation of potential candidates is a common occurrence.
The cardinal candidates who are likely to be the next pope are: Robert Sarah and Peter Turkson from Africa, Luis Antonio Tagle from Asia, and Marc Ouellet and Óscar Rodriguez Maradiaga from the Americas.
1. Robert Sarah
Sarah is a Guinean prelate born in 1945.
He was appointed as a cardinal on November 20, 2010 and was prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments from 2014 to 2021.
Under Pope John Paul II, he served as secretary of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples and president of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum under Pope Benedict XVI.
Sarah is highly conservative on views on sexual morality, celibacy, Islam and right to life. He is a forceful advocate of traditional catholic teachings. This coupled with his vision for Africa’s special role, makes him a strong candidate.
However, his perspectives have in the past created significant friction between him and Pope Francis. As head of the department that deals with liturgical matters back in 2016, Sarah was appalled when Francis washed the feet of a Muslim woman during the traditional foot washing on Good Friday.
His rigid stance on such issues diminishes his chances of being crowned Pope. Though Africa is a growing catholic territory, it is a problematic continent facing numerous challenges. This, too, hurts Sarah’s odds.
2. Peter Turkson
Turkson is a Ghanaian prelate and cardinal of the Catholic Church born in 1948.
He has served as chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences since 2022. On August 31, 2016, Pope Francis created the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, naming Turkson as its first prefect .
Having a strong approach on interreligious matters, global peace and economic problems sets him apart. Turkson has long been a favourite as observed in the 2013 papal conclave.
Nonetheless, being the first African Pope is a big ask which makes him less likely to be chosen. To add to that, Pope Francis accepted his resignation as head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development instead of renewing his 5-year term.
3. Luis Antonio Tagle
Tagle is a Filipino prelate born in 1957.
As of June 5, 2022, he has been serving as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of Evangelization of Dicastery for Evangelization formerly the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.
Tagle is the Cardinal-Bishop of San Felice da Cantalice a Centocelle (pro hac vice) and also serves as the President of the Catholic Biblical Federation, Grand Chancellor of the Pontifical Urbaniana University, and as a member of various departments and dicasteries in the Roman Curia.
Additionally, he served as archbishop of Manila up until he was appointed as the President of Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious on December 8, 2019.
Of all the candidates, Tagle seems to be the strongest one. Having schooled in America for 7 years and having roots from China through his mother further strengthens his profile.
He is one of Pope Francis’ top favourites and they get along well. They share similar perspectives on certain issues. However this hurts his chances since it may evoke jealousy of playing favourites among other candidates.
At his age of 65 years, Tagle is considered a bit too young to be pope. His youthful energy best serves the church from other posts.
4. Marc Ouellet
Ouellet is a Canadian prelate of the Catholic Church born in 1944.
Pope Benedict XVI in 2010 appointed him to serve as the prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. Pope Francis is yet to accept his resignation from this position well past his retirement age.
Owing to his strong position in South America as a major catholic continent plus his close relationship with the pope places him above other contenders. Receiving a third of the votes in the 2013 conclave also says a lot.
In August 2022, a class action lawsuit against Ouellet was filed in Canada. Though Pope Francis stated that, after extensive internal investigations, there wasn’t sufficient evidence of the alleged assault, Ouellet’s chances of becoming definitely grew slimmer.
There’s also a new accusation of sexual misconduct.
His fragile age of 78 is another barrier.
5. Óscar Rodriguez Maradiaga
Maradiaga is a Salesian and cardinal of the Catholic Church from Honduras, born in 1942.
Among his long list of achievements and experience, Maradiaga is the Archbishop of Tegucigalpa and has been the Vatican’s spokesman with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, on the issue of Third World debt.
In 2001, he was elevated to the cardinalate. He is the former President of Caritas Internationalis and served as President of the Latin American Episcopal Conference (CELAM) from 1995 to 1999.
Both Pope Benedict XVI and Francis have trusted him with great roles. In 2013, Francis appointed Maradiaga as Coordinator of the Council of Cardinal Advisers, reaffirming the role in 2020.
Even though his great managerial skills and brilliant mind sets him up for success, he needs to balance his ambition with caution. His age of 80 years also makes him unlikely to be Pope. Since 1970, candidates have to be younger than 80 to participate in the conclave.
So, who do you think will be the next Pope?
